Water AlliesTier 1
at CMB- GA Store Championship
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1436
· median 1436
· range 1436–1436
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1162
Q1 1225
Q3 1497
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 18.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 18.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +6.5 |
| Water Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.0% | -27.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
